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# Prediction Payouts and PnL

> Calculate gross payout and user profit or loss, distinguish expected and actual amounts, and reconcile refunds separately.

Total payout includes the stake component for a winning order. It is different from net profit.

## Core amounts

| Amount              | Meaning                                                       |
| ------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------- |
| Stake               | The amount committed to the order                             |
| Expected payout     | The displayed return if the accepted winning condition is met |
| Actual payout       | The amount recorded after result and settlement processing    |
| User profit or loss | Actual payout minus valid stake, on the reporting basis       |

For a winning order, gross payout equals stake multiplied by the recorded odds. Subtract the valid stake to obtain user profit or loss before any separately charged fee. Use [Fees](/prediction/fees) when reconciling separate fee entries.

## Worked examples

| Example, before separate fees | Stake    | Recorded odds | Gross payout | Net PnL   |
| ----------------------------- | -------- | ------------- | ------------ | --------- |
| Winning Custom order          | 100 USDT | 1.85x         | 185 USDT     | +85 USDT  |
| Winning Grid order            | 100 USDT | 4.85x         | 485 USDT     | +385 USDT |
| Losing order with no payout   | 100 USDT | 1.85x         | 0 USDT       | −100 USDT |

These are arithmetic examples, not available quotes or guaranteed outcomes.

## Precision and settlement

Do not calculate a payout from a shortened display label if the accepted order stores a more precise multiplier. For example, a stored 4.85x is not 4.9x simply because the interface displays one decimal place. Use the recorded multiplier, actual credited amount, and the product's rounding rules.

## Refunds and reports

Refunded and voided orders are excluded from valid stake in prediction reporting. Reconcile their fund movements separately instead of classifying the returned amount as a trading win.

Prediction stake and return are separate measures from perpetual or spot turnover. See [Result Evaluation and Settlement](/prediction/settlement) and [Transfers and Transactions](/prediction/transfers-ledger).