Prediction Odds Mechanisms | 6MM Prediction

Odds are a return multiplier. The pricing mechanism depends on the game; the currently displayed quote is not evidence of an already accepted order’s terms.

Three mechanisms

Game	Mechanism	Important distinction
Up/Down	Dynamic quote from the two directional pools	Pool balance and the proposed stake affect the quote
Custom	Fixed odds configured per symbol and period	Both directions use that period’s fixed odds; acceptance stores a snapshot
Grid	Target return rate divided by estimated hit probability	The quote varies by price interval and time window; acceptance locks it

Up/Down pool pricing

The configuration describes the Up quote as one plus the target-return factor multiplied by the Down pool, divided by the Up pool plus the proposed stake. For Down, exchange the two pools. Configured lower and upper bounds constrain the result.

Liquidity supplied by platform market-making accounts can participate in these pools. Their orders are not counted as real user participation. A displayed participant count is therefore not a complete representation of pool funds.

Grid probability pricing

Estimated hit probability considers the mark price, recent volatility, and the chosen price/time boundaries. It estimates touching during a window, not simply ending inside a range.

For a 97% target return factor and an estimated 20% hit probability, the model quote is 4.85x. Grid configuration sets a minimum; quotes above the maximum make the cell unavailable rather than being capped down to that maximum.

Target return is not a promised result

A target return parameter is an input to pricing. It is not a guaranteed individual return, an observed win rate, or a promise that a user’s results will converge to that percentage. Model estimates, odds bounds, and actual outcomes are different quantities.

For money examples and precision, see Payouts and PnL.